Darth Tigris said:
Hmm. I kinda like this post more than most here, but I disagree with minimizing the importance of profitability in looking at the reality of the PS3 right now. The PS3 has good momentum right now. The sales are up, the library is improving, the price point is more friendly and the fanbase seems to be very satisfied. So what's wrong? The endeavor is still far from profitable. That's the black mark. This being Sony's 3rd console, to have the effect it has on the division that houses games that we've seen, especially in light of the success that the first two were, gives that black mark a definition that is not flattering at all. And thought it may not seem likely, such losses at least will make the possibility of a PS4 a subject of serious discussion by tptb.
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Not sure where you get the idea that I think the importance of profitability should be minimised. I just don't think beating Sony over the head with the multi-billion $ loss stick (or rather Sony beating itself over the head with it) is particularly constructive. In many ways the Slim launch (or in Sony's PR terms the PS3 re-launch) is a bit of a do over. Those billions lost on the phat are gone and no re-launch is going to put the whole PS3 endeavour into the Black. From a business perspective Sony is probably right to look at Slim launch as a day 1 and think about what the strategy should be from that launching pad. April to Oct 2010 appears to be a period in which PS3 will be selling at a per unit profit, and along with peripherals and games the PS3 has probably been profitable overall for slightly longer than that. From a business strategy perspective there's some rationale for putting the base console back into a small loss making situation provided Sony are confident that they can more than make up for it with game and peripheral sales (nett profitability).
The business case for PS4 will never be argued on the basis of PS3's economic performance, except to the extent that SCE can convince the Sony board of directors that they won't be repeating the PS3 economic performance / business model. So, in a very real sense profitability of PS3 from here on in doesn't really matter all that much, from a lifetime profits perspective PS3 is a lost cause. As long as it's not a nett drain on Sony's bottom line from now on it doesn't matter if PS3 has short periods of the base console selling at a small loss.
The business case for PS4 will be on the basis that the PS brand is still in a good position with consumers, and PS4 will be profitable at, or soon after launch. All of those elements of the business case depend a lot more on PS3 achieving market share and maintaining sales momentum leading up to the PS4 launch than on PS3 profitability.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
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