RolStoppable said:
richardhutnik said:
RolStoppable said:
Last question first: No, I don't want Apple to make a console either.
I am not sure what you mean by saying "the financial markets", maybe that investors are funneling money into third party publishers with the ultimate goal that either Sony or Microsoft are able to succeed with their convergence box? That money isn't invested in those companies first and foremost to make profit through video games themselves, but rather all the rest like movies and such because the same investors also own stock in Sony and/or Microsoft? So without the hopes of creating a successful convergence box due to Sony and Microsoft exiting the hardware business, investors will pull out of the video game business altogether? Is that you wanted to say?
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I am talking about the money people here, and how they treat industries and whether or not they put money into them. If the videogame industry saw two of the three players in it leave, do you think they are going to continue to fund projects in that area? Do you think those who advice corporations on what to do, who are in the financial industry, are going to greenlight anything related to the industry if it isn't seen one as growth? Do you think there will be home market games being done, that have major costs associated with them?
Want to know where convergence is coming? Look in the portable market. It is now shaping up to be Droid vs iPhone. That is where things are happening. Beyond that, where exactly would a convergence box take place? We have one convergence now... it is a called a PC. Beyond that, in the videogame business, the most noted convergence business model was the 3DO. Well, study the history of the 3DO to see why that business model didn't go over well, at all. The business model that does work, outside of PCs, is the proprietary model that Apple uses. It is very profitable with this business model. It owns and controls everything there (distribution to the hardware), but does allow people to develop around it. In computers, it still isn't as profitable as the PC market though.
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The video game industry is already in decline. The old core market is suffering since years due to rising development costs and consumer disinterest. Despite that, there are still lots of investments into HD games while the rapidly growing side of the market kept being ignored for the most part. Third party publishers are laying off people left and right to improve their bottom line. At this point it's only a matter of time until those money people you speak of pull out, with or without Sony and Microsoft in the industry.
The funny thing is that analysts were able to fool investors with talking about an evergrowing industry even though nearly all the growth came from Nintendo platforms. Even more funny is that now that the decline can't be hidden anymore, analysts solely blame Nintendo systems for it. But in the end there's not really much to worry about. The good and competently managed companies will survive.
Also, why would the market not be able to grow if Nintendo was the only company to make hardware? It seems like you are basing your concerns on this one assumption.
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Unless Nintendo's console happens to be HD, and features a number of hardcore titles that appeal to the young male demographic, there is concerns about the growth perspective. This group may end up going back to PC gaming, or stick with portables (Apple catering to them). Back in the day, when Nintendo was the top dog, they did the sensoring of game like Mortal Kombat, which ticked this demographic off.
What I was saying is that if the industry is down to one console maker (doesn't matter who), the world becomes very aware of what is going on.
