Sony won the Blu Ray gamble, but lost the one about how much would have cost it.
The main reason is that they didn't predict Nintendo's comeback, but they were also arrogant and untimely with PS3 pricing, it came totally outlandish when the market was starting moving towards commodity prices for multipurpose devices.
Now, thanks to economies of scale and process shrinks they can correct the mistakes of their not related to Nintendo success, so they'll recover something.
To break even including games and royalties profit Sony must quite likely sell 60M PS3 or more.
To break even on HW sales they'll most probably have to sell at least 80M, with the additional 20M in the late years, when margin will be high.
But while 60M is their minimum goal and 80M their acceptable one, it's obvious that their ideal goal is to sell 100M or slightly more, possibly beating at least PSOne.
Minimum goal should be easy to reach, acceptable one harder, but not excessively.
But ideal goal will be very, very hard to achieve, it would mean that PS3 wouldn't be the best Sony has done, but at least it would recover from every failure.







