(post continued, guess it was too long...) Another reason I feel price wasn't the biggest factor for Wii's success (at least up until now) is because the Wii had no direct competition (the only motion control console)- so it was either $249/$199 or no motion control console...
I unfortunately fear the Move will fail. It should undoubtedly succeed with one of the things that has made the Wii a success (simple control scheme with low learning curve), but it seems like it may fail in the other 2 areas.
1) GAMES: Sony seems to be concentrating on and emphasizing more mature games for the Move, which will appeal more to the hardcore rather than the casual gamer. BUT, as I mentioned, I think motion control gaming appeals way more to the casual gamer than to the hardcore. I have seen some family-oriented games for the Move, but 2 of the most advertized games are mature rather than family: the realistic boxing game and Socom 4 (because the boxing game is so realistic in character design and in general, it makes it feel a lot more violent I think as opposed to Wii cartooney boxing, and will thus deter adults/families from it).
2) PRICE: Now that there will be 2 [similar] motion control consoles, price becomes a much more important factor. Sony will be forced to make the Move/PS3 bundle very expensive compared to the Wii unless they either pull some black magic maneuver to significantly decrease the cost of the ps3 OR...take a $100-150 loss per bundle. I see neither being feasible. So now it will be either Wii for $199 or PS Move for $349-399. Such a significantly higher price for the Move will undoubtedly impact its sales since it will have direct competition.
One more factor that may have an impact is that all these families across the world have JUST spent their $199-$249 on the Wii, so I see a good lot of them being unwilling to fork out money for another (similar) console so soon. Well, unless the Move is extremely impressive, which I hope it will be.
I want more than anything for the Move to succeed. I'm a fan of Sony for the quality they put in their products as well as for various other reasons. I also am personally really interested in the Move. I think it has a lot of potential and will have lots of games that will be a blast to play. But I think it has way too many things that will be going against it. I really, really hope I'm wrong.
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