UK General Election, Election Day and Results Thread

[SciFiBoy]

Soleron said:

Kantor said:

Soleron said:
...

A referendum on Alternative Vote. Very different from just passing the law.

Though I suppose it would be more popular than PR.

I don't see why it should benefit Labour. It'll benefit the Lib Dems more than anything, really: Labour has many safe seats, in which people vote Labour, thus setting it as their first choice. The second choice would inevitably be the Liberal Democrats- there is far more common ground between Labour and LibDem than Labour and Tory. Perhaps UKIP would also benefit from being the second choice of many a Tory voter.

Come to think of it, I don't really like this idea.

There was a projection on the BBC. The result if the 2010 election was repeated under AV would be (approx): Labour 260, Conservative 280, Liberal 80. As opposed to approx Labour 250, Conservative 300, Liberal 50 now.

Yes, the Liberals' position would be improved numerically more, but look how close Labour is - and it's that margin that really determines who forms the goverment. And that's in the most Conservative leaning election since 1992 or perhaps earlier. If the two had equal vote share it would be a massive Labour majority. If it was a Labour leaning election they would have an insurmountable lead. The Conservatives would need a 10% lead in the popular vote to even form a government. Labour would only need parity or perhaps less. That's not fair.

 

The reason is this. The most common kind of marginal is LAB and CON in first or second then LDEM in third. You're right, most LDEM would put LAB as their second choice. So when LDEM is elminated in most contests, thoe votes are given to LAB - and they win almost every seat of this kind, because LAB+LDEM almost always > CON by a large margin.

which is why I (and the Lib Dems) support STV instead