GeoW3? How about Halo Reach??? Seriously, the beta has been IMMENSELY fun and I'm anything but a hardcore Halo player. Its the big game for the 360, not GeoW3 (still waiting for 2 to outsell 1; seriously, I think its a great game).
The real wild card IS Project Natal. I really don't think people here are giving it enough of a chance to be a huge success for Microsoft. Maybe that's it; console fundamentalism isn't allowing them to see it. But E3 is not far away and we'll finally see what MS and its partners have up for whatever the final name of Project Natal is going to be. Only thing left at that point is the public responding with dollars in hand.
For the record, anybody that thinks that hype cannot push a decent product into being a full on phenomenon, I give you the iPad ...
