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I predict SMG will win by 2% on metacritic.

Sales wont be close at all.

In the Americas (the 360's strongest region), SMG2 has more than 4 times as many preorders as Alan Wake. This week alone SMG had more than 5 times as many as AW, and SMG has an extra week going till release. And Wii games usuaully have a higher ratio of first week sales:preorders, and higher total sales:first week sales. Now obviously SMG2 will thrash Alan Wake in Japan, and others as well. It will be a massacre

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=79923