tbh, I'm pulling for Alan Wake. I've been interested in it since 2005 and if it does really well I'm getting a new 360.
These are my predictions:
SMG2 Metacritic 88 to 95 (I'm thinking it might be docked some as it is a sequel. Could have less to do with quality of game than biases of hc reviewers wanting some vindication.)
Sales 5 to 10 million
Alan Wake Metacritic 93 to 97:
Sales: 3 to 7 million.