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Honestly, it's going to be all these things working in tandem.  If I had to single out just one factor though, I would say the slim model is actually probably the most important.  It (1) supports the "relaunch" planning they're likely doing for the fall (Natal being the other half of the equation), (2) will likely encourage a good amount of the established base to upgrade (as happened for GB, PS, PS2, GBA, DS, PSP, PS3 and other platforms with model revisions) and most importantly (3) allows them to firmly separate themselves from the RROD disaster in consumers eyes by offering a "new" 360 that doesn't overheat if you look at it funny.