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Personally I think it either breaks even or makes a little profit. They charge publishers data transfer fees for DLC (but not for patches, which is why you see some publishers include DLC content in a patch and then enable it with a small key file).

The make money from Home advertisements and store purchases, but for 3rd party content they pay a royalty to the content owner.

I'm fairly certain they make money from Qore (or it would have been cancelled a while ago).

I do not know if they have made back what they spent on developing Home.

I am certain they will have a paid, premium service like XBox Live, as who can resist a business model where you charge people for using their own internet bandwidth. I also think they will keep the free online gaming until the next generation, and then charge whatever MS is charging for Live.