But i mean, looking at Sony and MS, both will most likely keep their online service as they are, Sony will keep and/or upgrade the blu ray, microsoft might upgrade to blu ray, the launch of natal cant be a short term product but rather a huge investment for the future of xbox.. so it'll be there still. Sonys 3d gaming is taking place this gen and all consoles will most likely have full BC if a new console would launch.
So why would they need to invest in a new console launch (i.e taking a loss to push for installbase) when what is making the consoles successful is taking place right now and for a few years to come.
Sony has their 10 year plan for example.. that would most likely mean a new PS console within 4 years. And in return that would most likely mean a new Xbox within 4 years. And knowing we'll have to wait a few years to get some good 3d games. Or to see the full effect of the support for Natal (which basicly will release 2011). I dont understand why they would just shut it all down and relaunch a new console the following year, or the year after that.
I think we'll see new SKU's with optimized components, harddrive upgrades and new features. But i dont see the need for "next gen". The need to start all over again with pushing for installbase, new marketing and new "niches".
I think this gen will be like the DLCs. We'll see small updates to keep this gen alive until there's actually something out there that can justify a NEW console.
