So basically, we know, and I mean we KNOW that Gran Turismo 5 will, infact, be a system seller, so I'll cut to the chase and get down to the point of this thread.
Although we know it'll sell consoles, what I'd like is your opinions on just how many consoles it will sell, preferably in the first week.
Now, I don't have any data infront of me to see how the spike was for the earlier Gran Turismo games, specifically 5P, since that was a demo and surely enough managed to move a few consoles.
If I were going to be realistic I'd say that in the week that Gran Turismo 5 is released, IF, it is released on a Monday/Tuesday, and is bundled (No doubt it will be, it'd be a mistake for Sony not to do this), then an extra 200-300k PS3s, wait for it... in the EU alone, will be sold, since we're the biggest consumer market for racing games, specifically the Gran Turismo games. In US I expect to see a bump of 150-200k consoles, and I'm expecting to see the game sell better than the fourth iteration over there. And in JP, well, it's anyones call, I know there's going to be a spike, but I can't say how much, I mean, at an estimate, based on what I've given for the other two regions, anywhere around the 100-150k mark total, not extra, so that'd be a bump of 100-125k.
So now I think it's safe to assume the PS3 will sell between 150-200k for the rest of the year with no big releases, since it seems to have dropped with the last weeks charts, however, to be fair I'll put it at 175k, since that's the medium.
175 + 200/300 (EU) = Low: 375k / Mid: 425k / High: 475k
425k + 150/200 (US) = Low: 575k / Mid: 600k / High: 625k
600k + 100/150 (JP) = Low: 700k/ Mid: 725k / High: 750k
Now, the math I've just done could very well be messy and not so easy to understand, so I'll explain my methodology.
Basically, I started with the estimated 175k average weekly sales, and added, firstly, my estimated increase from EU, I included the lowest and highest numbers possible, but used the medium in the case of this example, I then added the medium to the weekly total, and did the same thing for US and JP. Obviously the numbers would look different if it only sold on my lowest estimate, and on my highest, but I decided to keep it simple and stick with what I had.
So there we have it, for me, in my opinion, the PS3 could very well end up within the 700-750k bracket for weekly sales on the week that Gran Turismo 5 is released, but in order to get maximum sales for the week, it would need to be released on a Monday/Tuesday.
Do you agree with my estimates and how I did the math to work out my weekly average, or do you have a completely different estimate in your head, please share them with us.
