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If MS goes with Natal only bundles, which I believe is a very strong possibility depending upon how much they're REALLY banking on making it a major part of their future, we will see inventory clearing sales on old stock.

So expect to see thinning inventory on 360 SKUs prior to Natal's debut in this scenario.

If MS does do a significant price drop in the $50-100 range, which becomes a lot less likely if each SKU is bundled with Natal, I wouldn't be surprised if they drop the Arcade SKU altogether and sell HDD equipped SKUs only.

In other words, don't expect to see $150 Arcade SKUs bundled with Natal.

Even a $250 Elite bundle with Natal seems unlikely, but not completely out of the question.