Okay what did was I looked at the sales WW for the Wii at the end of July, the Wii had sold about 10.2 mil. I believe that they most likely had around 500-800k already stockpiled(Companies all leave themselves with some inventory so they can divert resourses in case of the unexpected) August is when they increase production to 1.8 million a month.
Based on this at the End of November Nintendo would have produced between 17.5 to 18.5(variation is based on exactly when they increase prodution and size of summer stockpiles) As of Dec 9 16.1 million Wii's have been sold worldwide leaving us with 1.4-2.4 million Wiis hiding somewhere. if Nintendo releases the same amount this week as they did last week they would have 750,000 to 1,600,000 Wiis in existence for the week before Christmas.
So if Europe gets a minor increase to 300,000 for that week, and Japan sells about 150,000 that would leave between 300,000 and 1.1 Million for US in that week. So if it falls some where in the middle we will have 700,000 Wiis available the week before Christmas which I can only assume would get sold. Also the 700,000 would break the record that Reggie was talking about, so it seems very likely to be near the right number.
One thing I did not figure into these number is any Wii's produced in December(which would be an addition 1,100,000 by the time the week started)
I did this for 2 reasons.
1. To compensate for any over calculations I could have made(possible)
2. To stick with the theory that Nintendo always holds some stock(if it is a bad theory it would even out my numbers since I calculated it earlier.)
This really jibes with the New Policy for the Holidays that Nintendo put in place that says "The retailers that sell the most DSes gets the most Wiis" This would be when Nintendo rewards the good DS sellers. I can imagine walking into toys r us and seeing 300 Wiis on Sunday morning(I have heard they are the best sellers of the DS, them and Best Buy)
The one wild card that I did not try to read is how many Wii's were produced before the Wii's launch, Nobody really knows so I did not want to get speculative with this. The numbers came out saying that Reggie is not full of BS without having to play with them ONCE!
Additions, subtractions, completions, and deletions would be appreciated-
psn- tokila
add me, the more the merrier.
