One question : how many of you think that the Wii will last as long as the PS3 or X360 ? That the Wii will have a life cycle of 6 years or more ?
Within the first 18 months, Nintendo will have release all its core gamers top titles (Zelda, Mario, Mario Party, Mario, Metroid, SMB, Mario Kart, Mario Paper, Animal Crossing).
So what's next ?
Can the Wii rely solely on casual gamers ? The ones that own Wiisport, Wiiplay, and may buy Wiifit as their first real "game", then wait for the next big Nintendo casual concept ?
Considering the Wii is already at the massmarket price, how much a futur price cut can boost the sales ?
I doubt the Wii life cycle will exceed 3 or 4 years and other said it better than me : this console War is not a sprint, it's a marathon.
So yes, IMO, the Wii can finish last.
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