Given that the other big exclusive franchise on the PS3, namely Metal Gear Solid, did better than the previous iteration on the PS2, I would expect the same trend for Gran Turismo.
According to VGChartz, GT4 did 2.5 million in its first week, and 4.3 million in its first month (first 4 weeks).
I wouldn't be surprised if GT5, with its broader appeal, will do 3.0 million in its first week and 4.5 million in its first month.