The HD console momentum could swing back to the 360 late this year. 360 pricing, and to a lesser extent Natal, have the potential to advance the 360 and dampen down the PS3. So what MS does with the 360 may negatively affect PS3's chances of selling >15 million in FY11.
On the positive side of the ledger are GT5, Sony's own PS3 pricing plans, and Move. I don't see Move being huge, I think it will do OK but ti's not going to change to console landscape. GT5 will shift some HW possibly as much as a few 100K consoles. Sony could afford a $50 price cut later this year on the 120Gig, but with Move coming out at about the time Sony would be in a position to cut the price, if they decide to pack in the Move with all skus then that $50 cut would end up being a virtual cut. Perhaps if they sell a non-move 120Gig sku at a $50 price cut it would improve sales.
I don't see PS3 doing 16 million this year without a cheaper price tag. 13 million should be easy to manage.
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