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GOW1 4-week Sales (No weekly sales figures for Others): 387 026 (~600,000 with Others I would estimate)
GOW2 4-week Sales: 1 242 793
GOW3 4-week Sales (only 2 Japan weeks): 1 801 387

What we can see from this is, that sequels are more front-heavy than new IPs (hardly a surprise), but GOW3 is comfortably outselling GOW2 (which does suit the comparison better, seeing as we're looking at a title that would be more front-heavy).
GOW3 should do just fine. GOW3 is outselling Uncharted 2 by about 300,000 (or 20%) over the same period of time, and Uncharted 2 even launched in the holiday season. I imagine GOW3 will have comparable legs, so 4 million should be almost guaranteed for it now, and 5+ million is most certainly possible.