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It all depends on how much they hype it, Halo 3 was hyped beyond believe. They never showed so many tv spots for a game in my country before, there was about as much advertisement as for a movie like Pirates of the Carribean 3. If they do that again then 6 million is possible under the best of circumstances.

Personally I think Reach will come close to Halo3 's lifetime sales but it will have a slow start. I know I got Halo 3 in the first week due to the hype. But I regret buying it so soon as I'm used to getting a long single player campaign from a full price game. So I wont be getting Reach until it's 50% off and I'm sure I'm not the only one.