39% Of Gamers Who Plan To Buy GT5 Do Not Yet Own A PS3

[saicho]

theprof00 said:

saicho said:

theprof00 said:

saicho said:

thismeintiel said:

After looking at their site, I have no reason to not believe this survey they have conducted.  In 8 years they have become one of the top 25 trackers in the world (#24 to be exact). In fact, their weekly surveys remind me of the weekly political polls conducted here in the US. Everyone seems to qoute them all the time without questioning their exact methods. In fact, I know of no tracking site/service that releases their exact sources and methods. What would be the point? Then anyone could do it themselves. They always just release a general, one sentence explanation about their survey. Oh, something like "OXT’s GamePlan weekly tracking study surveys 1,000 U.S. gamers and buyers including hardcore gamers, casual gamers and everyone in between."

I find it ridiculous that people on a tracking site that does the exact same thing wish to criticize another tracking site. Maybe the survey is saying something people don't like. Something makes me believe that if PS3 was switched with 360 or Wii, and the game was Halo Reach or SMG2, there would be a different response. More in the line of "Awesome, that game is going to sell tons of 360's/Wii's!"

I think you might have missed the point. We are not doubting the "39%" of gamers who plan to buy GT5 do not yet own a PS3. What we have question about is how many gamers out of the 1000 sruveyed plan to buy GT5.

NiKKoM put it nicely in perpective in his post

It looks a lot different if he just post "22 gamers were surveyed and 50% of the gamers who plan to buy Halo Reach do not yet own a XBox360" than "22 gamers were surveyed and 2 plan to buy Halo Reach. 50% of the gamers who plan to buy Halo Reach do not yet own a XBox360."

it doesn't make one lick of difference how many out of the 1000 plan to buy gt5 and a ps3. It's called extrapolation, and through it, you can tell the buying potential of millions upon millions of people. It's not the most accurate thing in the world. Surveying every single person would be the most exact, and even then, not guaranteed. However, there is no survey based firm that does such a thing because it is very very costly and takes a long time. Just look at the US Census to get a good idea of how difficult such a thing is.

I'm sorry that the three of you don't understand statistics. But point after point you have no reason to doubt this. Statistics is very methodical and intricate, and there are many levels of analysis that it goes through.

What I'd like you all to think about, as another set of infered evidence, is that for a company that is 24th in the US in stat tracking, do you really think they would say something if it could be easily proved wrong by any number of 15 year olds on a forum.

Wake up guys.

let me use one extreme example. 1000 gamers surveyed. 3 gamers plan to buy GT5. 1 out of those 3 does not have a PS3 yet.

so I can say "1000 gamers surveyed. 33% of gamers who plan to buy GT5 do not have a PS3 yet." You are telling me you can extrapolate meaningful data from that and tell the buying potential of millions upon millions of people?

I already stated that we are not doubting the number "39%" (or 33% or whatever % it is). We just don't know how meaningful it is based on how it is presented now.

Any company that released that data to anyone would literally go bankrupt soon after. This company is 20th in the US at what it does, and moving still higher. I don't understand how you could even think that your example has some semblance to what they do. Your ability to confuse 3rd-grade rationality with business level statistics, does not bode well.

Sure, you are applying the kind of temperament we've all gained toward "spin", but you have to learn something. When media uses spin, it is because they want you behave in a way that is conducive to their business. When a juice company has "made with 100% juice", it is because they want you to buy the product. That is marketing. When other marketers look at that practice, they say, "that is a really smart way to word it".

Similarly when a company releases stats about a product or its business and makes things look better than normal, it is seen as normal practice, because they are trying to gain the confidence of investors. There is no difference between "100% juice" and using "shipped numbers" or "# of active users".

However, when your trade- when your INDUSTRY, is stat tracking, spinning numbers and releasing information that cannot be supported will get you fired, shut down your business, etc etc. This is because the PRODUCT= STATISTICS. If you are selling a fake product, you will get taken down; HARD. Your example above is akin to completely making the numbers up. There is no difference in the stat community. It's like selling milk when the only thing in the bottle is preservative and water.

DO you really think that any company would stand there and let them do that? DO you think the 26th or 51st ranked companies would idly stand by while another company releases fake numbers and misleading statements? NO. They will discredit them with their own study, and move themselves up, earning themselves a place in the top 25 or top 50.

 

ANd I agree with strunge, I would be embarrassed if I were any one of you who was questioning the sample population or the stat methodology. I'm not judging you here, and I don't really care what you choose to think, but you all literally talking out of your collective ass.

What's especially funny is how you all appear to be saying "X has a good point, too, in that etc etc", as if others sharing your view somehow makes your idea more valid. It's insane. You're a bunch of uninformed people codeveloping a theory that has no basis on anything. It's like the mentality is that with enough people you can work out the right answer, but what you're forgetting to do randomize your sample....which is ironic. Good luck with your groupthink.

 

You are still missing the point and making it personal now.

I never said the survey company lied or making the numbers up. I said what is presented (or shared) with us does not give any meaningful information.

You are the one telling me the number of people who plan to purchase GT5 out of 100 gamerss surveyed don't matter while it actually does matter.

"1000 gamers surveyed. 33% of gamers who plan to buy GT5 do not have a PS3 yet."

It could mean "1000 gamers surveyed. 3 gamers plan to buy GT5. 1 out of those 3 does not have a PS3 yet." or "1000 gamers surveyed. 30 gamers plan to buy GT5. 10 out of those 30 does not have a PS3 yet." or "1000 gamers surveyed. 900 gamers plan to buy GT5. 300 out of those 900 does not have a PS3 yet." or so on. The survey company certainly knows the real number and can extrapolate meaningful data from it. Unless you imply that extrapolation from all the three cases above would generate the same result, we certainly do not have enough information to make sense of the % presented to us.