there have been alot of good arguments why it will and why it will not; mostly based along console lines. i say games like halo, modern warfare, and mario sell based on name recognition and i include gran turismo in this group...these franchises dont care about the competition.
before christmas there were tons of people saying a 2d mario game wouldnt be huge that 2d platformers were dead well mario sold and is still selling
modern warfare 2 is constantly bashed by the core fps base as being inferior to other shooters well, it sold and its still selling
anyone think halo reach is going to be the best fps on the market when it releases well, it doesnt matter its going sell
gran turismo is the most recognized racing brand in the world and it doesnt matter if it turns out to be worse than (insert fanboy choice) its going sale more because of its name recognition or if you prefer on par with previous gran turismo game sales
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