Probably. It seems to have decent advertising build and as an action title with more traditional controls and unless it doesn't start strong I think US sales should drive it higher than HR initially.
If it's good and has strong word of mouth then I expect decent legs, too.
I'd be surprised if Alan Wake didn't sell more simply as it feels like a solid, polished title vs a more experimental title which should appeal well to the 360's install base.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...