Sony and Microsoft have equal chances of winning, but for different reasons. They need to awaken to the new software values, and seem to be approaching these ideas from severely different angles. Taken properly, the "ideology" of Natal could set Microsoft up well, but Sony needs to severely revise their approach with Move as we know it if they want a shot at it, but Sony's been good at grabbing the mainstream before, the issue is that they need to figure out how to get their first party software out in the mainstream again
If Sony and Microsoft fail to co-opt Nintendo in their next consoles, the only way they could succeed is if Nintendo fails to innovate at all, and bursts the casual bubble itself, then wallows in defeat.
Long story short, Sony and Microsoft have to come up with something huge. If they stick to their current plans, they have to rely on Nintendo to screw up quite badly.
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.
