Who will dominate the next gen?

[Zipper]

I know it probably too early but.. who do you think will dominate the next generation of home consoles?

Nintendo

Let be honest here - the only reason the Wii is in the first place is the motion controllers, not a huge library of quality games like the PS2 had

With both Sony and Microsoft getting their own motion controller, Nintendo obviously can't rely on that to put them in the first place again

The question is what Nintendo got for the next generation? The only "revolution" in gaming that can be potentially huge is 3D gaming and of course Sony is all over that with the PS3 supporting 3D gaming and their 3D TV's

Can a Nintendo console without gimmicks be successful?


Microsoft

Microsoft most notable achievement this generation is with no doubt the popularity of Xbox and Xbox live in the US

The names Xbox and Xbox live comes up nearly every time someone talks about games and that a remarkable achievement

However, the Xbox is still not as popular as the Playstation is in Europe and in Japan does not exist (and probably never will)

Although popular as a core gaming console in the US, Microsoft should not make the same mistake Sony did when they thought the Playstation brand name alone will place them in the number one spot and make people pay $600 for a console

This generation is not yet over and many people including analysts think the PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 and even the Wii crazy as it may sound

Other issues are Microsoft first party developers - what is Microsoft going to do about that matter? third party exclusivity on the Xbox 360 is not nearly as strong as it was in 2006-2008

Exclusive games like Mass Effect and Splinter Cell: Conviction are likely to appear on the PS3 next year and even franchises like Gears of War and Alan Wake are not safe since Microsoft does not own them

It remains to be seen how popular Project Natal will be


Sony

The question for Sony is tough since the the only thing they seemed to do wrong this generation is the PS3 price tag and marketing which they got both right just recently

Sony smartest thing to do this generation was creating a huge number of new and popular franchises with some having a huge selling potential (Uncharted, LittleBigPlanet) and it will be interesting to see how much will Uncharted 3 and LittleBigPlanet 2 will sell if they do come out on the PS3

Sony are also taking on two new fronts - Motion and 3D gaming with 3D gaming having a huge potential. it remains to be seen just how successful will they be in each of those fronts.

Sony most important task in my eyes is taking the crown from the Xbox 360 in the US as the leading core gaming console and making sure Playstation Network will be a name just as popular for online gaming.

Who will win this year sales in the US will be an important factor. the current shortages can result in a bigger demand for the second quarter or possibly even the holidays.

It will be certainly interesting to see just how much both the PS3 and Xbox 360 sell in the US when this generation is over.