When will Wii outsell PS2?

[Doobie_wop]

Mummelmann said:

scottie said:

Mummelmann said:
I don't think it will, never have and still don't. To assume blindly that it'll have three or more 20 million + selling years is very naive and all I see in this thread is assumptions that need several years to proven wrong or correct.
No consoles are immune to declining sales and selling at a a fast pace does not automatically equal selling for a long time, anyone with a tad of insight into markets of any kind could tell you as much.

So, let me get this straight; anyone who votes "never" are delusional fanboys who are only acting upon silly wishful thinking? What a mature standpoint from some of you. Even the mighty DS is taking a plunge (yes, a plunge, 20% + down yoy this years so far). There is, at this point, nothing delusional, or even unrealistic, about claiming that the Wii probably won't outsell the PS2, it appears more and more likely as it fails to attain the somewhat lofty hardware sales predictions in here time and time again, I missed my own 2009 prediction by around 6-7 million units (overshot it, that is) and I was being on the moderate side of things.

 

Anyone who votes 'never', without giving a sensible reason as to how they believe the Wii will go from being nearly 20 million above, aligned launches, to below the PS2 should NOT be taken seriously.

 

You are predicting a huge change, we are predicting that events will unfold like they always do. Unless you can justify your wild claims, we will continue to think of you as delusional fanboys, yes.

 

Why do you believe the Wii will stop selling, when do you think the PS2 will catch up with the Wii? (launches aligned obviously)

Where have I said that the Wii will suddenly stop selling? Declining and stopping all together are two different things, don't put words in my mouth please. The PS2 had an unusually long life due to the incredible 3rd party support, installed base and of course tremendous lead it had over the competition. The Wii has yet to gain 50% marketshare (and by the looks of it never will) while the PS2 had 60-70%+ at the end and all along in the race, it also came off of a strong foundation as far as 3rd parties and hardware trust was concerned from the original PS (as opposed to the Wii-GC connection). All online communitites laughed at the notion that the Wii would ever need a price cut to keep the momentum (even the grand Malstrom himself snickered at the very thought) and yet, there it was last fall, a significant price cut that didn't even spurr things along until NSMBWii came along and helped. You should also note, to get an idea of the difference in 3rd party support, how many of the Wii's best sellers are 1st party compared to the PS2 (hint; the Wii's top 20 is utterly dominated by 1st party). A lot of Nintendo fans on this site seem to harbour illusions of an invincible force in Nintendo, almost like the playground kids who are sure that their dad is the strongest man in the world. And, yes, Sony fell on their asses this gen and everyone knows it (which was good for the industry, I do not support monopolies).

This generation will be cut far short of ten years, the entire site (me included) seem to believe that the next generation starts around 2012, at which point 3rd parties will start moving on (they didn't from the PS2 right away and are even supporting it now) from the current generation hardware (and, please, don't give me that "but the Wii has great 3rd party full support", that's a load of bull). If anything, the 3DS shows that Nintendo are as ready to progress and start embracing newer tech as anyone else, which is good for us consumers in the end.

If you want to see me, and indeed the vast majority of this site as deluded fanboys (I know the PS3 tag under my name probably vexes you to no end despite me being a PC gamer at heart) then that's your problem and I really haven't seen anyone give any sound reasoning behind the belief of three or more years from here on out with 20 million + Wii sales. So tell me now; why will it sell 20 million for several more years? And don't show me graphs of aligned launches where it tracks above the PS2, I know all that and like I said above; the Wii is not the PS2 and the battlefield is a different one now than it was then.

PS: As for 2009 year end predictions; did you know that Crazzyman, the very symbol of delusion and lunacy in here, was a lot closer on his Wii predictions than the average user? You should also note that the most vocal advocates such as John Lucas have all but vanished and crept into their foxholes for quite some time since things haven't moved along like they claimed with such bravado and certainty. Don't be too sure of anything, this generation should have taught us that not everything follows the same conventions (the amazing flip flopping of the HD battle for instance, is unprecedented in console history) and you can't simply look at the past and blindly believe that everything will be the same. The Blue Ocean is vast, no doubt, but the winds abate like everywhere else (or change directions) and being a sprinter and a long distance runner are two very different things. As for me; I'm just a dude on the internet, like you and everyone else, so you might decide to not give a crap about anything I say and brush me off as a moron but don't be surprised if someone returns the favor (this does not mean I don't give a crap what you say, I obviously do, otherwise I'd hardly write this short novel).

Dude, that was just beautiful.