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MS will win aniways. The only question is how big the gap is :P
360 Slim, Halo Reach, GoW3 and Natal will do it for them, and if they have a surprise or a sick Natal-Lineup....there wouldn't be any questions at the end.

The only competition this year is Nintendo with the 3DS. If this will rock it could get close (like insane 3D pokemon-battles) :D

@RageBot: U got it ;)