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archbrix on 29 March 2010
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axt113 said:
archbrix said:
axt113 said:
archbrix said:
axt113 said:
Gintoki said:
Hephaestos said:
none of the above.... I see these dates as too soon.

Nintendo won't be the first to make the move this gen... actually they never are the first to make the move regarding consoles...

really?Did not they annonce 3DS?

Well first off, Handhelds are different than consoles, in addition, the DS is a bit older than the Wii and its sales are starting to decline, also, we don't know all of the facts behind why they moved the 3DS now, were they expecting Sony to release something and moved to pre-empt it, or did they see an opening in Sony's strategy and decide to exploit it?

 

 In consoles on the other hand, the MOVE and NATAL are well known and well understood, and Nintendo has already cut them off with WM+, and are moving on with the Vitality sensor, they can afford to wait until after NATAL and the MOVE expend themselves, and until after the effect of the vitality sensor is seen before planning their next console's release, the Wii has yet to near the end of its run, so they can wait a while longer.

@axt113:

DS sales starting to decline?  Definitely not; 2009 was not only the DS's biggest year yet, it was the biggest selling system in a single year ever, handheld or console.

As far as waiting until Move and Natal establish themselves, that's exactly what Nintendo should NOT do.  Doesn't mean they won't, but they shouldn't rest on their laurels; that's what got them in trouble against the Playstation.

 

 

Except, 2010 is down yoy from 2009, so there is a decline, and with the lineup of DS this year, the decline was apparent even before the 3DS was announced

Nope, what got them in trouble against the Playstation was the lack of games to appeal to the wider audience, instead they launched with games like Mario 64, instead of a Super Mario, and repeated that mistake with GCN, they tried making me too consoles which fail, kind of like what MS and Sony are doing with their motion controllers, this is what got Nintendo into trouble, its also why the Wii is a huge success, because they changed their ways, now MS and Sony are trying the Me-too route, and that will be even worse for them.

Move and NATAL won't establish themselves, so Nintendo can wait for them to flop, check my sig, MOVE is already an assured failure and NATAL is little better

By this rational, 2011 could have a weak lineup for Wii seeing as how Mario, Metroid and possibly Zelda are all being released this year, making a Wii successor even more likely.

Mario 64 not appealing to a wide audience?  It single-handedly sold the N64, which had by far the biggest console launch ever for its time.  They lost to Sony because of them writing-off the importance of third parties and bucking the CD trend which, like I said, was them being over-confident and underestimating the competition.

And to disregard the possible success of Move of Natal is completely premature;  we barely know anything regarding software for the Move and NOTHING yet for Natal, with E3 still to come.  Personally I kind of hope they flop too, but your sig means nothing; NOBODY can know something like that at this point.  There simply isn't enough information yet...

 

Actually Zelda 3D mario and metrid aren't a strong lineup, they won't move hardware, Wii vitality will, so we don't know if Wii's lineup in 2011 will be weak, in fact it could be stronger than 2010's, and even if it is weak, it'll just herald a new console in 2012, which many are expecting.

And the N64 sold poorly, so what's your point?  Look at Mario 64 sales, compare to Mario 1, Mario 3, Mario world, NSMB for DS and Wii, tell me which sold better.  No CD and third parties is what people think made them do worse, but Wii is lacking in third party support and has older tech itself, and is crushing the PS3, and 360, so your argument fails

Actually Christensen can, he's the guy who came up with the strategy that Nintendo is following.  And he knows what MOVE and NATAL are and as a result can state that MOVE will fail

 

Wii vitality could very well be a casual lure like Wii Fit was, and no, that audience will not be swayed by Zelda Wii, Galaxy 2 or Metroid.  But to say that three of Nintendo's most popular franchises are not a strong lineup is ridiculous.  The original Galaxy had very strong sales and Zelda Wii will do the same.  There are still core gamers who do not own a Wii yet who are just waiting for Zelda Wii to appear.

Once again:  N64 sold poorly because of lacking third party support and the lack of CD, period.  Nintendo and Rare kept the system alive on their own, making it reach the 30 million+ systems it did sell.  The casual bandwagon hadn't been established yet so how can you say their games didn't appeal to a wide audience for that time (ever heard of GoldenEye?)?  By that definition Playstation didn't have "casual market" games either and it sold phenomenally.  I guarantee that if the N64 had launched with NSMB or Mario World they wouldn't have sold nearly as many copies as Mario 64 at that time.  People were expecting 3D after polygons became the standard; why do you think Mario, a very 2D based game from its gameplay inception, went 3D?  The Wii has sold incredibly because of creating a new market:  the casual gamer, along with being very affordable for said market.  I never disputed this.  What I said was Nintendo underestimated the competition before on many levels, NOT with the Wii where they went a different route than the competition... so my argument=win.

I agree with what Chistensen says as his basis is sound.  But software could make all of the difference.  I don't think it will in this case, but do you think the Wii or the DS for that matter would have been successes if another company was at the helm of that technology?  Nintendo's genius ideas for applications with the new tech is what made them appealing, and there is always a chance (a very slim one in this case) that Sony and Microsoft could create apps that make their respective peripherals appealing.  Again, we don't know enough details regarding software.  Christensen never once says, "Move will fail", only that it's not poised for large success.  There is a difference;  while it won't have the break-out success the Wii-mote did, it could still suffice for Sony, who is seeking the casual audience, rather than hit rock bottom.  This market is just too unpredictable for you to assume Move and Natal are instant failures.  How about the 90% of analysts who, with sound statistical reasoning, stated that Nintendo would be lucky with about 15% market share before this generation started?  I rest my case.