Well let's say Halo Reach sells as well as MW2. So what 4.9mil first week? Now that is pretty damn huge and it will be lucky to reach that (no pun intended) in all likely hood.
Now lets look at GT5, lets say it has a global launch. Japan has proven with FF13 that they can buy big first week (1.5mil) lets say FF is bigger than GT in japan so we will say 1mil in japan first week. Now america, this is the big unknown. Looking at other big games GTA4, COD, we can see they have sold about 3mil+ first week. I think it is farely safe to assume a big game like gran turismo fits in along the lines of GTA4 or maybe alittle behind. So we will say 2.5mil in NA. Now europe and the rest of the world is GT's biggest audience, so really i wouldnt be surprised by anything for first week here. But even being EXTREMELY modest lets say 1mil, and really thats modest. So to break it down
1mil japan
2.5mil america
1mil rest of the world
4.5 mil total of GT5 sales (being very modest)
Halo reach, based off MW2 sales 4.9mil first week
The thing that makes GT5 potentially a halo killer is the fact that it is loved all around the world, japan is still a big market for the right type of game, and based off GT5p sales Japan wants GT5 and bad
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