Move and Natal will likely fail as gaming interfaces.

[Squilliam]

famousringo said:

Squilliam said:

Given the level of investment I would consider 25-30% attach rate as the floor of where they start being considered successful. They would have to be looking at between 30 and 70% attach rate as the realistic range of support for the interface from consumers. Anything less than that is likely a very negative rate of return for their time/money and a setback in terms of moving into the next generation as it raises questions from third parties about whether its worthwhile supporting them and it would kill consumer confidence.

I would say they'd need closer to 15M units because any third party targetting the interface would only be able to get a subset of the market. In a way I think of the new interface equiped consoles as a subset of the whole and a unique console to itself. I believe people ought to think of the interface as their own console within a console and give it the same considerations about userbase size relative to support that they gave consoles like the PS3/Wii/Xbox 360 with original equipment.

 

 

Okay, if you're setting the bar at Wii Fit or better, then yeah, they're definitely going to fail.

I have to set the bar that high because they simply will not get continued support otherwise. 3rd parties are offering support now because they believe they might have a chance to succeed, however if they become failures then 3rd parties will begin to expect a new generation of consoles to appear shortly (2-3 years at most) and they will start to pull support from both consoles and begin preparations for the next generation of consoles. This means we won't see many of the AAA developers for another 3-4 years as they make yet another transition. The success or failure of these interfaces also has considerable bearing on the standard level of support these consoles will get. 

I forgot to mention that Natal can fail as a gaming interface somewhat but still find some success as an interface in general. The concept of a hands free interface works well with the various video/music on demand services Microsoft has formed partnerships with. Netflix, that French place, Sky, LiveFM, ESPN and rumoured Hulu support which is possible given they specifically blocked the PS3 from access not too long ago alongside their own Zune marketplace.