Rpruett said:
I don't believe it will outsell Halo 3. For a myriad of reasons.
- Historically, a huge selling successful title witnesses significantly less sales on it's sequel simply because in order to reach that many sales there was a lot of people who bought into the hype once and won't be fooled again the second time. So while the 'fans' of the series will still buy the game in droves and there are a lot of fans for Halo, it won't hit that high mark that Halo 3 did.
Wrong
Just look at games in a similar position as Halo was on the 360. (Gran Turismo 3 vs Gran Turismo 4). Metal Gear 2 vs Metal Gear 3. I'm sure there are plenty more examples that I'm missing. I would like to see your list of games in the SAME position that Halo 3 / Reach sit in that have bucked the trend.
Halo 1 to Halo 2 then to Halo 3 sure seems to buck the trend... Hmmm....
- Secondly, Halo 3 was one of the first few epicly large titles for the Xbox 360 and also was Halo HD.. (Well actually it wasn't but you know what I mean) . For this reason, anyone associated with the Halo series that remotely enjoyed it went out of their way to go out and purchase this game. This relates to my first point. Less sales because some of the people who went out of their way to go out and purchase this game weren't happy with the direction of it, the gameplay in it , etc and won't get it because of it. A good example for this IMHO would be God of War III. I bet God of War III sells a good amount (For it's series) and most likely more than the other 2 God of Wars sold. But I highly doubt if there was a God of War IV it would sell as much as III because the buzz / hype around it is lessened.
Wrong
It's a fact of anything consumed. You don't sell 10 million copies without some amount of hype pushing those fringe purchasers over the edge. For example, Mario Galaxy vs Mario Galaxy 2. I can promise you, I won't purchase MG2 because I didn't like the first one as much as I was told I would.
And yet each consecutive Halo FPS sold more than its predecesor. So clearly not many people were dissappointed and each time more people were intrigued into buying the game. The only complaints that were ever made about Halo 3 are now being addressed in Halo Reach so that in turn would draw in even more non Halo fans (new graphics, new gameplay elements, new game modes, sprinting, etc).
- Thirdly, It was a well established series. So comparisons to Uncharted or a myriad of others don't really apply. Uncharted 1 for example was always an underrated game and received no hype factor for it whatsoever. Uncharted 2 got tons of media time and air time on top of having a core fanbase that loved the first one.
Irrelevant
It relates directly to what others were saying in terms of comparisons. New IPs don't factor into this because by the release of Halo 3 it certainly was not a new IP. See Halo 1 vs Halo 2.
- The Halo name is probably at it's lowest point that it's been since the early days of the franchise. And while Halo Reach can certainly go a great length towards putting it back on top, the failures of ODST / Halo Wars do matter on the sense that they tarnish the Halo brand name and weren't up to traditional Halo standards.
It's common knowledge that the Halo brand name has been at a low point in terms of titles released. Halo Wars / ODST were far less critically acclaimed, sold many less copies and frankly didn't live up to the Halo standard.
Oh really? It seemed like for the RTS genre Halo Wars received overwhelming praise and higher meta scores than any console RTS to date. Halo ODST was merely something to satisfy the most hardcore halo fans until Reach could be completed and was mostly to keep Reach under the radar for a while longer. The only real complaint about ODST was it lacked much new since it was merely a new short campaign and a new game mode. Nothing relating to Halo itself has been wrong with any of the Halo games of 2009. Quite frankly it is NOT common knowledge that the Halo brand is at a low point. In fact that is only common amongst people who are not Halo fans 
- As has been proven, time and time again...Userbase doesn't have really much of an impact on sales. Good games sell well regardless and have great legs. So while the 360 user base has grown that really shouldn't impact sales one way or another.
Wrong
There are plenty of examples to prove this. GT3 vs GT4 (For example), Metal Gear 2 vs Metal Gear 3. Please give me examples to the contrary.
Halo 1 vs Halo 2, MW vs MW2, Mass Effect vs Mass Effect 2. Just a few examples that were easy to think of. In fact, I find it very amusing that to nearly every argument you've made so far, the Halo FPS series seems to be a perfect counter argument! LOL!
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