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One issue I'm wondering is if the next generation of consoles comes out before it's sales could get there. If it sells faster than Halo 3 but slower than mw2 how long would it take to get there? It will be out just about the beginning of the 360s 6th year on the market. If the next console is announced before the game has been out a year I think it really reduces the chances if not till even after 2 years out. I think it should be very possible.

fist week of sales and reviews will also be a good indication of how it will do.