I see them on the same level once they release their respective motion detection techs, as from what we have seen up until now, including demos and PR, Sony has a less inovative solution, but precise and suitable for a lot of games genres and styles, while MS' Natal is more innovative, but while it's perfect for some things (dance and gym, for example), it's terribly lame for others (the driving demo was appalling). So a jack of all trades (that actually could be also a master of sword games) against a master of some more things. I smell parity, with MS dominating a few genres and Sony gathering rougly the same, but spread amongst more genres and dominating fewer of them.
Neither will be able to grab Nintendo's sceptre and throne, but Sony could grab the swords (and part of other hand instruments and weapons based games) and MS seriously hit Balance Board and dance and fitness games. Nintendo can partially counter Sony's attack including WiiMotion+ with every Wii and WiiMote, but it can't do anything about dance games, Natal will rule them (if it's well implemented enough, obviously), while fitness games could still be ruled by Wii BB overall, but with Natal grabbing a good share of some of them. All this HW wise, obviously, we don't know enough about games, yet.
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