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From the press releases on this, Move is targeted towards new customers (as in non-customers), not the existing fanbase.

What I find silly is that it seems that Sony thinks that Wii owners will want to shell out another 500+ dollars for a new system + controllers. Playing the Wii is a social experience, and most people that play Wii (minus the Wii Fit-ers) do so in groups. So that requires an investment into a way new set of controllers to play with friends and family. Part of the appeal of the Wii is its cheap price.

I really don't think Wii owners are going to shell out 100s of dollars for what is looking like only a graphics upgrade. Sales numbers of the Wii and its games have already shown that most people don't care about graphics. If Sony has a device that does essentially the same thing (even if the way its done is different, and the tech is better), and releases the same games, what will entice Wii owners to pick it up?

To sum up, Sony will not lose fans for this, but I do not believe Sony will gain the millions of fans they want/expect. Maybe some people who have no system and were interested in Blu-ray (points to weaveworld's last comment), but I doubt many Wii owners care to upgrade and buy a whole new set of controllers and game.

In the end, it's about the software. The Wii was successful in large part due to great software from Nintendo. If Sony can do the same, and not just mimic successful Wii software, then maybe they can pull in enough new customers to meet their expectations.