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Fable 2 was hyped beyond realism, that played a part in it's succes and I think many who got it thought it was a so-so game. I think there is a bigger chance of Fable 3 selling only 2 million copies then there is of hitting 5 million. If this was a FPS series then things would eb different, the market would be bigger and if Fable 3 was better then all the other FPS then it can quickly sell those numbers. But for an wRPG 3.5 million is a lot, it might sell 4 million if they manage to make the game 20+ hours for a change but 5 million is unrealistic.