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Bundles that include the move and eye with a game ( I think the game will likely be a set of games like Wii Sports) for $100 is cheap enough to make it a modest success. Especially if they advertise it heavily.

The adoption rate will depend on the games that are released for it. So far LBP, Socom 4 and Resident Evil 5 will be able to use it. There's a small chance it could make playing FPS on consoles as fun as on PCs.

For a casual market they need games like Just Dance though.