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crumas2 on 09 March 2010
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Legend11 said:
crumas2 said:
I certainly hope the PS3 isn't Sony's primary console after another 3 years. I seriously doubt Nintendo and MS are going to wait a total of 10 years to release new consoles, and I can't buy the hype that the PS3 could still be "leading edge" performance-wise if that happens. Processor/bus/memory/etc advances just don't crawl along that slowly.

For those who say, "Sony wants to keep the PS3 around for 10 years", that doesn't really determine much from a product standpoint. I would love it if my home computer could play the latest games after 10 years, but the only way to come even close to making that happen is to basically replace all the internals with much more advanced components... motherboard, drives, memory, etc. You can't do that with a PS3 and still call it a PS3.

And before someone points out that the PS3 Slim has a "new" motherboard, etc., you need to think about the fact that the changes to the processor, graphics, etc. are slightly upgraded--primarily with power-savings in mind, not redesigns of those components.


I don't think any of them want to bring out a new console any time soon.  Nintendo is raking it in with the cheapest console to produce.  Microsoft is looking at the profits that Nintendo is making in video games and is starting to chase that now.  Sony can't afford to launch a new console considering they're probably just reaching the break even point for hardware.  Add to that the current costs of game development and the additional costs for a newer console and it's doubtful that anyone except some gamers want new consoles.

 

You make a very good point... console manufacturers are going to want to milk as much out of the current generation, particularly considering the red bath Sony and MS have taken.  Naturally, this isn't an issue for Nintendo, as they seem to have been profitable right out of the gate.

I'm guessing that one of the following scenarios might cause a disruption to this approach:

1. Nintendo has been quietly designing an "HD" box and is only waiting for the right time (component cost reduction, HDTV adoption, Blu-Ray adoption, market conditions) to move

2. MS, still floating in cash reserves and still one of the most profitable companies on Earth, decides to swallow more red ink

Three years may not seem like a long time, but the current generation of consoles will definitely start getting long in the tooth, particularly considering how many commoditized parts are used in them, i.e. - memory, support chips, etc.  So from a hardware perspective, at some point in time it will likely be a cost savings to move onto the next generation of components rather than trying to keep living in an out-dated hardware environment.

Also, as long as the processor/graphics keeps a similar API as an abstraction layer, it won't be as expensive as what Sony did with the PS3... in other words, the next generation might be more of an evolution rather than a revolution.

One last factor is PC gaming... if this drives the right components down into the ground, price-wise, it may make it possible for a new generation of consoles to come out at lower price points than what MS and Sony were able to accomplish this gen.

So, while I agree that it might be somewhat expensive to move on in another three years, I still believe it's very possible depending on what strategy the console companies adopt.  Sony is the least likely, but even they may decide that the PS3 is getting a little crufty by then.