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Statistically, Sony first party games just don't seem to sell well. This was magnified by the 2009 exclusive Uncharted 2, which achieved unanimous critical praise, but fell off the sales charts completely a month after release. PS3 owners have consistently come under fire for not supporting first party with their wallets, but is that really the case? Analysts tend to agree that low first party PS3 software sales are first and foremost a result of the install base, not penny pinching consumers. To date, there are roughly two times as many Xbox 360 owners in the US as there are PS3 owners. "Uncharted 2’s sales were unprecedented, selling more units than any other previous first-party title on the PS3, but because of its small install base great games like Uncharted 2 will always fall short in comparison to multi-platform titles and exclusives on other consoles," suggested EEDAR's Vice President of Analyst Services Jesse Divnich. "However, as the PS3’s install base continues to grow, we can expect future blockbusters such as God of War III and Gran Turismo 5 will set new records for the console." Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter is largely in agreement with Divnich, though he thinks that the Xbox 360 may be home to more hardcore gamers than the PS3. "Sony’s first party games reflect the composition and size of the PS3 installed base. It was so expensive at launch, that it really only penetrated wealthy households, and more middle class hard core gamers bought 360s. Now, the consoles are on even footing price wise, but Microsoft has a 3:1 or 4:1 advantage among the hard core. That suggests that games like Uncharted 2 will sell 25 – 35% as many units as games like Gears of War," said Pachter. "As the base expands, first party exclusives are likely to do better
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With God of War III looming, that unrelenting question has resurfaced once again. Will God of War III make the kind of waves that Gears and Halo have on the Xbox 360? March is set to be an unusually strong month in 2010, with several highly anticipated titles due out - notably, Final Fantasy XIII and Battlefield: Bad Company 2.
Despite that, both Pachter and Divnich think that God of War III will likely have the biggest shot at success of any PS3 exclusive released thus far.
"It is certainly not out of the question to project that God of War III will surpass 2 million units in its first three months, worldwide, making it the fastest and best selling first-party PS3 title to date." Divnich told us.
Pachter agreed, saying "God of War and Gran Turismo each have more mass market appeal than did Uncharted 2, so I think each will perform a lot better."
With only a week left before God of War's release, we won't have long to find out.
http://www.ps3center.net/article/393/2/analysts-gow3-will-be-best-selling-ps3-exclusive-to-date/
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