It was my understanding M$ discontinued the original box because it couldn't reduce costs on Intel's processor, the dvd drive etc. In retrospect rushing their own design onto the market cost them as much as keeping the old one in place but hindsight is 20/20. There is no reason to expect the same next gen.
Roughly 30m PS2's sold at $130 or less after Sony's new system launched. The pattern could easily hold true for pricing and percentages for M$. Another 12 million or so 360 sold at a slight profit would add to sw sales. The issue becomes whether you believe Sony is trailing in hw this gen because they kept the PS2 alive. I think launch date and price were bigger issues.
We won't see any new hardware before fall 2012 imo. The possible exception would be Nintendo's HD offering. With their numbers, what's the rush? The 360 may still be selling in 2015 but I for one will need a serious hardware upgrade before then.
