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There is a good possibility of 1.5 million first week.

Of course I fall into the 1 to 1.2 million unit range WW fw.

Since there isn't a real reason to pre-order GoW 3 anymore (except Gamestop's pre order bonus, stores aren't doing pre orders for the Ultimate Edition anymore), pre orders won't likely increase by much in the lead up to release, but there's no way a PS3 owner, potential owner or just walk in customer has not heard about GoW 3.

So pre orders (imo) can't really be used to gauge first week sales to accurately.