| JWeinCom said:
1.) Tablets will be a hinderance to the PS4 and 720, but not in the way people think. Let's say you're a 15 year old kid who is a casual (read: Call of Duty casual) gamer. At Christmas time or his birthday he's going to have to choose, do I want a PS4 or an iPad? He's not going to choose the iPad because it's a better gaming machine (unless he's an idiot) but he might want an iPad more in general. The fact that tablets are #1 on many people's christmas list is going to be a factor. I'd go into more depth, but in short, every other entertainment product is in competition with the PS4 at some level, and since tablets are the most popular electronic device, that's why I see them as competition. Not because of their gaming value.
People are bored with the current generation. That's true, BUT I think they're bored with the software, not the hardware. Wii fans are bored with the Wii, but they're not flocking to the Wii U because the Wii U doesn't have compelling software or features at the moment. New hardware alone isn't enough to make people excited, it takes great software too. That's why I think the PS4 and 720 are going to have problems with the PS3 and 360. I think a lot of software, like the next COD, will be intentionally held back so that it can play on the 360 and PS3 as well, and that's going to prevent the PS4 and 720 from really having must have software. I personally don't expect the PS4 and 720 to have a huge step in graphics, certainly not as big as the jump from SD to HD. Combined with intentionally gimped software, this will post a problem. I don't think we'll have a huge jump in online functionality either. Because of this, I dont see an immediate reason to go from PS3 to PS4 for fans. The industry, sadly, will slump for a little while. I don't think we're going to see the big jump that will jolt the industry. The must have system pushing software will have to come from Microsoft and Sony, because they're the only ones who have the incentive to spend millions and millions on cutting edge next gen exclusive stuff. These products will be the ones that reenergize the industry (or not). After a year or so, when Microsoft and Sony have gotten the ball rolling on the shift from PS3 to PS4 and 360 to 720, that's when we'll see developers making use of next gen optimized games, and that's when the industry will kick up again. Not counting the Wii U, which should be able to get rolling before then.
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You seem to be under the assumption that casual gamers (especially online gamers) will be satisfied with a tablet. I seriously doubt that will be true. You also assume that most of the world can't afford multiple expensive. I also doubt that to be true. If the products are all highly desired, then they should all sell well. When has one product ever harmed another product when their similarities was only the fact that they were electronics? Games like Farmville, Angry Bird, Temple Run, etc., aren't going be enough persuasion for someone to stop playing CoD, Halo, GT, etc. Besides, the existence of a tablet can be countered by the lack of Wii purchases.
The big releases are the same every year: Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and maybe a Sony and Microsoft exclusive. That's always been the case and I don't see how 2012 is any different. The rest of the year is typically showered with smaller-medium games that hope to get what's leftover. 2012 saw plenty of small-medium games too; Hitman, Sleeping Dogs, Dishonored,
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