Wii, all the way.
This gen we're seeing a near-unprecedented sort of shift in market-share. While things will appear roughly equal for the time being, as the Wii continues to outsell its competition, more and more developers will announce riskier titles for it. And RPGs are about the riskiest title that one can announce, due to the development time.
I predict a full or near-full commitment to the Wii from Namco-Bandai, Capcom, and Atlus USA (who will start announcing imports of niche titles by Q1 2009), not to mention first- and second-party titles like Fire Emblem, Baten Kaitos, and at least one new title set in the Xenosaga or Ogre Battle universes.
Konami will remain loyal to the PS3, and with that, that's where Suikoden 6 will be going. Square-Enix will extricate itself from the home console market and devote itself primarily to developing for handhelds by the end of this generation - with a few exceptions. By the end of the generation, we'll see a FF13 spin-off on the Wii and the finishing of FF13, Versus 13, and the Crystal Chronicles games, but that's about it. FF14 will appear on the Wii 2, while most of S-E's offerings in the meantime will appear on the DS, DS-2, and (less often) the PSP.
The 360, of course, will continue to get the odd Bethesda or BioWare title. MS may also procure the occasional JRPG from a Japanese developer looking to break into the Western market, but after 2008, these will be extremely sparse.
"'Casual games' are something the 'Game Industry' invented to explain away the Wii success instead of actually listening or looking at what Nintendo did. There is no 'casual strategy' from Nintendo. 'Accessible strategy', yes, but ‘casual gamers’ is just the 'Game Industry''s polite way of saying what they feel: 'retarded gamers'."
-Sean Malstrom
