Will Super Mario Galaxy 2 surpass the first one?

[Gamerace]

I expect SMG2 to top out at about 6-7m. Less than the first one. My reasoning is that when SMG came out it was the only Mario game on Wii (excluding sports, party and Paper) so a lot of the Wii's more casual base bought it.

However, 3d Mario has never had the mainstream appeal as it's 2D counterpart.

So SMG2 will sell to most of the Nintendo core and the casual Wii audience will continue to buy NSMBW instead. In fact I totally expect NSMBW to outsell SMG2 weekly in all but the first 3-4 weeks after SMG2 release.