Is It Possible 4 The PS3 To Sell 100M B4 It's Off The Market?... I Think So - UPDATE 85 Millionz Reached

[The Ghost of RubangB]

joeorc said:

The Ghost of RubangB said:
Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.

Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?

Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.


I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago.

yes it may be unthinkable, but one only has to look at the growth of the market world wide this generation vs' last generation the Wii is in 38 countries world wide, how many was the game cube in last generation?, not 38

just look at the xbox360's market penetration :

the first xbox was only released in limited areas vs's this generation now 21 region's for the xbox360.

the market can sustain the growth. I think that has more to do with the advancement of technology as a whole even 3rd world nation's what would have been no way near the advancement of technology now with thing's OLPC:

http://laptop.org/en/children/index.shtml

the world is getting smaller for communication and technology unlike 10 year's ago who would of ever thought of the Netbook reaching a price of $100.00 or less, yes that's quite a bit of money  in some place's of the world but also there is many areas that now have this technology in those countries that many thought there would be no way because of the econmic's there but yet there it is.

I really don't think any of these new markets make that much of a difference... yet.  They're all contributing a few thousand sales here and there, and not the millions needed for PS3 to get to 100 million.

The big 3 are creating new markets in new regions, but they're just planting seeds right now, hoping to build up a userbasee for 5-15 years from now.  I don't think we're going to see 10 million Wiis in Korea or 10 million 360s in India any time soon, but I think that might happen in 1 or 2 generations.