Is It Possible 4 The PS3 To Sell 100M B4 It's Off The Market?... I Think So - UPDATE 85 Millionz Reached

[The Ghost of RubangB]

Carl2291 said:

The Ghost of RubangB said:
Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.

Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?

Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.


I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago.

The only problem is, and it's a long shot...

What if the Wii successor is out either this year or next? Sony and MS have both stated how they want this gen to last for a long, long time so i doubt we will see anything from them for a few years yet, especially if Natal and Arc both sell moderately well.

Nintendo have constant rumor's of new hardware being revealed, and don't seem to talk about how long they want the Wii to be on sale for (i haven't seen anything anyway).

It could severely drop Wii sales as Nintendo focus on the Wii2, and could keep Wii from hitting PS2-like numbers.

I think all of those rumors are lies.  They're intentional FUD spread by Nintendo's enemies to make casual users go "Huh... maybe I shouldn't get a Wii if a new one's about to come out."  If you can get casual customers to believe those rumors for just a few more months, you might be able to steal them with Natal or Arc.  I see no reason for the market leader who is still breaking all sales records to cut their success short.  It would be like Avatar 2 coming out a month after Avatar.  These are the same people saying that a Wii price cut highlights its weakness, while a PS3 price cut highlights its strength.

But even with a Wii 2, it wouldn't hurt the Wii.  The market leader always lasts extra long.  Only systems like the XBox and GameCube get cut short when the companies need to rejuvenate their strategy with a new console.  The SNES didn't hurt the NES, the GBA didn't hurt the GB, the PS2 didn't hurt the PS1, and the DS didn't hurt the GBA.  And on the other hand, the PS1 didn't hurt the SNES and the Wii didn't hurt the PS2.  The Wii has more momentum than any of those systems ever had.  It should burn out a lot slower, no matter how long this gen is.

If the Wii2 came out tomorrow, the Wii would go down to $130 or $150 at some point, and still have Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and 3 Mario games.  For 3 years now the industry has proven that nobody has any ideas more appealing to consumers than Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and 2-D Mario.  Nintendo's in no hurry to slow the Wii down, and in fact they're working on speeding it up with a Mario/Metroid/Zelda/WiiVitality superbomb.