I would be interested in seeing how many gamers there are out there without a current gen console that want to buy one eventually when prices are lower. On this site that demographic is rare (its a gaming forum after all) but it would be interested to see how much of this group is in the general public. I'm sure this demographic must have some significance. Historically, $300 is a lot for 3-4+ year old consoles and for gamers that prefer one of 360/PS3 to a Wii, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of gamers waiting for a hard drive model 360 or a PS3 to hit $200. Who knows though. We're not the ones with the market research.
What we do know is that this gen's hardware sales are not that far from catching up to last gen's hardware sales. I think we're at the 75-80% point. But the Wii has attracted a lot of new customers. We have to take that into account too. There may be a lot of last gen gamers left who don't have a current gen console (but want one. Or maybe many of them left console gaming? Who knows).