psrock said:
So right around GOW3, FFXIII the 360 will start outselling the PS3? Second, for some resaon the 360 is selling over 90k in NA each week which is the reason it's so close lately, That's not going to stay like that. |
Well interestingly we have been here before, which was my point about people forgetting history.
In 2008 we had the exact same thing happen. The PS3 had just had a price cut and going into 08 had a lot of momentum. It was outselling the 360 worldwide.
It had a great game out in that year called Metal Gear Solid 4. I remember it was all very similar to how it is now. Most people asumed with that game coming out it would sustain PS3 sales all the way until the end of the year. It did not quite work out like that did it?
I see this year as being a mirror image of that year. In 08 the gap between the 360 and PS3 was a lot bigger then this time around.
For the same first 6 weeks in 08 the PS3 sold 970k worldwide. For the same period the 360 sold 715k. A gap of 255k.
This time around the PS3 has sold 955k worldwide, a drop of 15k from 08 and 360 sold 773k, up 58k on its number in 08. Making the gap this time around just 182k, a difference of 73k or 30%.
Translated means if we look at full weeks data from the start of the year after both times Sony had their price cuts they are actually selling less this time around while 360 is selling more. Meaning the gap is not as big.
This is even with the Final Fantasy 13 effect in Japan which saw numbers there increase by loads.
As for the same thing happening in europe and america that will not happen because the game is multiplatform. For example in US those people who had a 360 but no PS3 would have to buy a PS3 to play that game if it was still exclusive. Because it is not exclusive means they dont have to buy a PS3 to play it, which means the impact is far far less.
If we continue to look at 2008 and look at that year from week 6 data (feb 13th) to july 5th we see PS3 sold 3.1m units. And 360 sold 2.5m units. Meaning PS3 in those following 5 months sold 600k more units then 360. That is a lot of hardware and a big gap in PS3's favour. People seem to forget this for some reason. But then if we look at the gap from then to just before 360 price cut (13th sep) we see PS3 sold 1.22m and 360 sold 1.26m. Meaning 360 was actually outselling the PS3 BEFORE its price cut because in 2 months prior to it the 360 had sold more.
Now as you mention this time around the game is not MGS4 it is God of War 3. A game that has nowhere near the same level in popularity as the Metal Gear franchise. If we use MGS3 we see the game sold 4m units. Selling a million in its 1st week on sale. Then look at MGS4 sales on PS3 we see it has sold 4.5m selling 1.7m in its 1st week. Of that 1.7m 500k was in Japan. If we now look at GOW2 we see the game sold 2.5m units. In its 1st week it sold 559k. Of that 559k a massive 17k was in Japan. Translated means the first week of sales in Japan alone for MGS4 were nearly more then GOW2's entire first week worldwide total. Which shows just how big each franchise really is.
Where as this time around 360 seems to have titles that generate more interest in this period. Crackdown 2, Splinter cell, Mass Effect 2,Alan Wake, Supreme Commander, Mechwarrior, Kingdom under Fire 2, Ninety Nine Nights 2, Metro 2033 etc. These games are coming out around this period etc.. Add those games to the multi-platform games such as Bioshock 2, Bad Company 2, Final Fantasy 13 and so on then you have to say the 2010 game line up for Microsoft is a hell of a lot stronger then in the same period for 2008. In fact if you look back at the same period in 08 you will find the only exclusive for that period was Ninja Gaiden 2.
Don't get me wrong the PS3 has some good games coming, GOW3 being one of them. But in terms of the line up in terms of software sales i think we can agree that the MS exclusive games this year will outsell the PS3 ones. The 2nd half of the year is a no brainer, Halo Reach will murder anything else out at that time.
So my point of this is to show that PS3 actually was in a better position to now in 2008. The console sold more and the gap was bigger between it and the 360. PS3 sales are declining faster then they had in 08. Some put that down to shortages while others put it down to other factors. Over 75% think PS3 will beat 360 every week in 2010. History shows that wont happen if the current pattern continues.
So i think by the end of the 6th month the 360 will again be selling more consoles then the PS3 weekly, because the same thing happened before.
