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Sqrl on 20 February 2010
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tombi123 said:
@Sqrl

The increase in intensity is negligible at the moment. But remember that even if we stopped increasing our CO2 emissions tomorrow, ocean temperatures would rise for the next 30-40 years releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere which then increases land surface temp etc. leading to increasing hurricane intensity.

5-10% increase doesn't sound like a lot, but it would cost more lives and money, especially in low lying developing countries.

I'm not sure you followed my point (this may be my fault).  Allow me to rephrase.

If I take it under consideration that the models indicate a 5-10% increase in hurricane activity over a doubling of C02 then my first thought is that we are talking about something we can analyze with empirical data.  In this instance we are talking about a basic logarithmic relationship in which each unit of additional increase in atmospheric C02 has an exponentially smaller impact on the increase in hurricane intensity (in the form of some unspecified measurement). 

The important thing to note here however, and I want to stress this, is that when someone tells me "Models predict 5-10% increase from a doubling of C02." I take away the fact that they've identified a logarithmic trend and then I consult the emprical evidence for the details of the impact of that logarithmic trend.  A model is, as I said, not science by itself but merely a hypothesis which is of course just a very early step in the scientific process.  The crucial step of gathering and testing data comes after that step.  The models, like a hypothesis, are a research guide telling us where to look in the vast sea of emperical data, they are not a substitute for actually looking at that data.

In short, I take the model as meaning I should look for a logarithmic relationship between atmospheric C02 and hurricane intensity.  When I look at the emperical data I find that there is no evident trend during decades where annual mean temperatures increased or decreased.  I then analyze this discovery in the light of the decreasing efficacy of logarithmic relationships leading me to the conclusion that if the relationship does exist it is negligible.

Please advise me of where I've gone wrong in this analysis.
To Each Man, Responsibility