Can't believe the DS is goingto take out the PS2

[Reasonable]

RolStoppable said:

Reasonable said:
I have no problem believing a portable device will sell more than a larger device that sits under a TV. In fact, I'd be shocked if it didn't. Going forward through I'm not sure whether handhelds will exist entirely seperate from phones, but they might, at least in Japan.

As for Wii, that isn't that big a surprise. Apart from recent months with the recession the videogame market has been expanding, which means that the dominant console should sell more. What's more surprising is that the market seems as able as it does to support three consoles this time around.

So sorry, I guess in the end what surprises you hasn't surprised me at all!

Console sales numbers and revenue from games make it look like that, but is the market really able to support three consoles when most of the companies involved have been regularly posting losses in the last few years?

Yes.  The market is based on the demand, and based on HW/SW sales there is clearly a big enough market for all three.  The losses are based on poor business models or other issues, which are nothing to do with the consumer.

Consider how the 360/PS3 technical specifications have driven up the cost of development for many titles, plus the fact the HW was sold at a loss.  Not necessarily the best business decision, but it doesn't affect the demand.  Also, with the sudden jump in console development costs there were bound to be casualties, smaller developers whose business model depended on something like the PS2 allowing them to sell enough copies to cover moderate development costs.  The Wii, without getting into why, has failed to fully replace the PS2 for third party developers in that regard, and again, without getting it the why, PSN/Live seem to have failed to deliver a sustainable route for such developers, leaving them to compete on PS3/360 against big publishers/titles with the inevitable poor sales, studio closures, etc.

We also have to recognise that all industries were affected by the global recession, and the videogame industry was in no way immune.  Sales dipped vs what they would have been without the recession and studios started taking a hit as the reasons above were compounded.

So the market is there, I think the question which you imply is are the business models of the current three main payers the correct ones to best leverage that market?

Good question though.