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Smashchu2 on 15 February 2010
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Joelcool7 said:
Smashchu2 said:
Joelcool7 said:
Smashchu2 said:
Hisiru said:
Smashchu2 said:
Hisiru said:
Smashchu2 said:
dark_gh0st_b0y said:
stof said:
Perhaps. But remember that only one of their last two E3's was any good.

yeah 2008 and Wii Sport Resort were awful and yet sold over 10m, imagine if it was great, 2009 was average and had another 10m seller and more coming soon, how bigger can this "good" one be?

probably another revolutionary console, a handheld one?

I'm sorry to single you out, but where are people getting that Nintendo might release a new handheld. There is no reason they should release a new one when the DS is still outselling every console. Iwata has even recognized that the DS is slowing down and they need to create new, exciting software for it. Heck, the US still doesn't have the DSi XL. Not to mention that the DS strategy is to grow the market. Releasing a new handheld would mean Nintendo would have to start all over.

DSi XL/LL is just a revision, a DSi with bigger screens and the DSi was launched in 2008.

The DS is selling well but do you think that they will wait for Sony to release a new handheld first? Hell no! If they launch the "new DS" first they will have a huge advantage (just like they always do).

Releasing a new handheld similar to the DS with more power and motion sensor (similar to the Iphone) would mean more money. All they have to do is keep the actual DS at a low price and launch a new handheld at a high price. There is no need to discontinue the actual DS, so they will continue to make  the market grow.

First, making a new handheld would mean to leave the ond one to die.[Not true, when the DS was announced at 2004's E3 Nintendo also announced these games for the GBA: F-Zero GP Legend, Mario Pinbal, Kirby & the Amazing Mirror, Pokémon Fire Red/Leaf Green,The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap, Mario Party Advance, Mario Golf Advance, DK: King of Swing, Mario vs Donkey Kong and Donkey Kong Country 2 advance. See? Big support for the GBA even with the announcement of the DS. Oh, they also released the GBA Micro in 2005 (1 year after the DS was announced)] Nintendo can not spread themselves too far with Natal and ASrc coming out soon.

Second, Nintendo is using Blue Ocean Strategy [I don't know what "Blue Ocean Strategy" is, sorry I can't provide you an argument]. To compete with the PSP would be a red ocean strategy [and what is this?]. Nintendo has made it clear that their goal is to use strong software [I remember when Mr. Iwata said something like that but it was for the Wii, not DS, am I right?]. The Wii went from worse case senario to sold out just because of Super Mario Bros. [Well, the Wii is actually selling well even without a new Mario game. Actually, the Wii was selling well in US/EU before NSMBW was announced] The DSi XL isn't even out in the US and they would want to make a new one? [As I said before, it's just a revision, nothing changed, it's just a DSi with bigger screens and the DSi was released in 2008. Also, the new handheld would probably launch in Japan first, not here (isn't that how it works? So we would get this new handheld in 2011)] One that would have to grow the market again? [No matter when they launch a new handheld, they will have to "grow the market" again] It is not smart for Nintendo to do that when the DS "makes the competition irrelevant." Making a new one would sacrifice 6 years or work. [Using this logic, they can't release a new DS even after 10 years because they would sacrifice 10 years of work, don't you think?]

The thing is you have to understand the context of Nintendo's strategy before you can make assumptions on it. For instace, you don't know the Blue ocean Strategy, and becuase of that, the line "Making a new one would sacrifice 6 years or work." makes no sense to you.

Nintendo's focus is to grow the market, and I don't mean market shares. Nintendo's goal is to get more people playing video games, and playing their systems. With this in mind, it would not be helpful to release a new system becuase then Nintendo has to try and grow the market all over again. They would be better of to make games that will attract more users who have not played videogames then to make a new system. The DSi XL also fits into that strategy as they are trying to make a system for older people and attract them.Releasing a DS 2 would make the DSi XL dumb in the first place becuase of the fact that it wouldn't grow anything and all these new gamers would have to (or Nintendo would want them to) upgrade to the new DS.

Also, let's not forget the Gameboy. The system lasted for 9 years before the Gameboy Color came out lastiung for another three years. Yet it only makes sense for the DS to be replaced after 6 years despite the fact it is far more successful. This only shows how strong the DS is and why Nintendo should keep it.

Well your absolutely right in an archaic sense. The GameBoyAdvance was still selling very well when the DS got released. That sort of pumps a hole in your logic. Also you can't forget other sources influencing Nintendo's decision making. Do you really think DS would have come out if the PSP wasn't in the works? Nintendo would have stuck with the GBA.

In the same way Sony has already publically revealed that a new PSP is in the works. Many believe the new handheld could be revealed at this E3 or the next one. The PSPGo was a market failure and Sony is looking to launch a new platform. So if Sony is preparing a new handheld device then Nintendo will also release a new device.

What happens if the next PSP launches and Nintendo decides to stick to its guns and not answer with a new platform? The DS market share will shrink and disapear within two years. Look at how long the GBA lasted after the DS/PSP launched? Nintendo stated at E3 2004 that the DS would not be replacing the GBA that they were going to keep the GBA going and continue supporting it.

The GBA proved that Nintendo can't ignore the competition, Nintendo has to evolve and it needs to create a new platform to compete. A new handheld is definatly on its way whether it arrives at Nintendo's press summit or at this years E3 at latest next E3 if Sony doesn't reveal a handheld.


Also you use the nine year lifespan of the GameBoy, don't forget that the GameGear had failed and so did the NeoGeo. Their was no real competition. But the PSP has shipped more hardware than any of Nintendo's prior competitors, if Sony plans to reveal a new platform then Nintendo won't be stupid and stick with the DS. Besides it has already been confirmed that Nintendo has a new handheld in the works Iwata and Miyamoto have both talked about new hardware and even talked specifically about the next handheld. So we know its coming and it'll probubly come sooner rather then later!

 

P.S- Blue Ocean strategy is more then a supportive factor in a new handheld coming. Blue Ocean is Nintendo's strategy of expanding the market. The DS has expanded the market about as much as it can, its time for a new ground breaking console to continue that expansion.

First, the Blue Ocean Strategy is a book, not something Nintendo made up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5foJ-cwj4Mk

The tagline of the book is "How to create an uncontested marketspace and make the competition irrelivant." Reggie says that the point is to focus on growth and not trying to one-up the competition. The goal is to sidestep competition and create a new product that gives new values not offered in the industry. The DS added the value of the touch screen which made games easier for those who have never played them and allowed Nintendo make new types of games like Nintendogs.

What you are suggesting is that Nintendo needs to counter Sony, but this is Red Ocean thinking. This is thinking about competition and not growth. Decline and stagnation in markets are created by compeiting on industry standard. Nintendo knows their goal is to grow the market place. They mention this all the time for the DS and Wii. How would the DS2 grow the market? Can they mantain growth if they have to get old DS users to migrate and attract new ones. See how this plan is just impractical to do against just keeping the Ds and making more software. You mentioned Miyamoto said Nintendo is working on a new handheld. Nintendo, like Sony, is always working on a new handheld. Nintendo would never let Miyamoto talk about their next system before it is offically announced as someone could start stealing secrets. Heck, Miyamoto also is aware of this and would never risk it. However, Iwata did tell investors that Nintendo has noticed the DS's declineing sales. He said this:

On to our challenges on the decline of our software shipment in the “Other Regions” including the European market, we acknowledge it as a big issue because, even though the decrease in actual sales in the markets was smaller than the decrease in our shipments (as I said during today’s presentation), the actual sales declined about 20%. Some say it is due to piracy activities made possible by devices such as Magic-Coms(R4), but I don’t believe it’s the only reason. When Nintendo DS was getting more and more popular and sales figure performed accordingly, some of our product proposals became a social phenomena. Just like Brain Training in Japan, Nintendogs or Brain Training did the same thing in the European market. Actually Brain Training performed fine there last year – it sold over a million copies in Europe but the previous year had sold more than three million copies. That means Brain Training had less visibility as a social phenomenon last year. Nintendogs is in a similar situation. If we could propose what will replace them and maintain a high visibility in society, then the Nintendo DS momentum can be activated and more software titles can be sold. What this means is that we were not able to do that. Thus I believe our highest priority is to propose and offer Nintendo DS titles which can be another social phenomena.

Nintendo said their strategy to to offer new DS titles. Their goal is to keep the DS alive.

Now, you mentioned that the GBA was doing well during the DS. however, you have to see the market from Nintendo's prespective from that time. The Gameboy like was shoehored to young kids in the US and Europe and wwasn't doing great in Japan. Reports showed the market was starting to decline and it already had in Japan. Nintendo knew they had to do something, so they used Blue Ocean Strategy to create a new market space and create growth. This is where the DS comes in. Nintendo is conservative, so they wont try some radical plan unless they have a back up. This is why Metroid Fusion came out around Metroid Prime and may be why Galasy 2 is coming out (to help NSMBWii if it failed). So, Nintendo kept the GBA line in case the DS failed, thus the third pillar. The GBA Micro was made in case the DS failed. The DS successded, and all focuses moved to the DS. But you may ask "Why did the Micro come out after the DS's success." Remember that the DS took some time to get warmed up in the US. It was Brain Age that made the DS here (although Nintedogs still did well). Nintendo, at that time, was still hoping the DS made the impact in the west it did in Japan. So, at E3 05, Nintendo announced the Micro. But, again, the DS worked and it was discontinued.

Before I close remember the PSP Go? Remember what Nintendo did in responce. Nothing. The PSP Go was Sony trying for what they though would be a big hit in digital distribution. Nintendo saw no threat and did not respond. When Sony announced the PSP2, Nintendo will not respond. You have to understand that the DS is in a Blue Ocean, and Nintendo will only respond if the PSP2 has the same values as the DS. Right now, they are not in the same market space. Nintendo "Made the competition irrelevant." Their goal is not to compete for the handheld market, and they know they have lost every time they compete on the same values, as has Sega. They will never compete dirrectly with Sony ever again. Heck, the DS is not competing with the PSP, and it's the most successful Nintendo system so far. To counter attack the PSP2 (which, mind you, has not been revealed. Notice how Nintendo is always last to respond?) would be to sacrifice their blue ocean they successfully created and jump back into the red ocean and fight Sony and lose.

It's dumb for Nintendo to release a new handheld and they know it. It's not coming.

I hear where your coming from. However what happens when the DS stops expanding the market? Nintendo is not a stupid company and they do know that Blue Ocean alone won't hold out forever. A DS will not continue selling well after a succesful PSP2 launches. Also how much more can the DS expand the market before something new is needed.

Now you could argue that Blue Ocean is working well and indeed the DS is making cart loads of profit for Nintendo. However for the first time in handheld history the competition is actually succeeding. The PSP is selling millions of hardware where GameGear/NeoGeoPocket only sold thousands a month or less. Then software for the I-Phone/I-Pod Touch is selling like hot cakes. Nintendo is loosing their edge on the market more with the DS then any other handheld in Nintendo's history.

Also not competing with the competition (Avoiding Red Ocean) is impossible when the competition starts using Blue Ocean as well. It was a way for Nintendo to expand its user base and launch a pre-emptive strike. But with Natal and Sony's motion controller and a new PSP on the way, its a fact that Nintendo will have to compete.

Your also wrong Iwata has already started talking about the next handheld denying features that have been suggested and even Miyamoto has talked about the next Wii. Fact is Nintendo is prepparing new hardware and the dillusion of non-competition and constant market growth will not work once all the competitors start expanding into one anothers territory!

In the end Blue Ocean worked but Nintendo will/can not stick to Blue Ocean for ever. You can't say okay the DS is expanding the market so lets just leave it for a decade while the competition provides the market with newer fancier consoles. Also Nintendo handhelds have always had very strong early adapter sales. If Nintendo chooses to launch a new platform they will have no problem doing so. Most DS owners will buy Nintendo's next handheld at launch or shortly after.


Also just to get a word in, The PSPGo was Sony's answer to Nintendo's DSi. The DSi and Lite were answers to Sony's 2000 and 3000 models. Fact is they have been competing with fresh hardware this whole time. If Blue Ocean were really Nintendo's only strategy then why do we have a DS:Lite , DSi etc...etc.... fact is Nintendo is using parts of Blue Ocean and Red Ocean strategies to make their decisions. But they are not strictly Blue Ocean or Red Ocean. They are using what works and are not stupid.

Nintendo has never responded to a PSP release. Nintendo released the Lite in 2006 and released the DSi in 2008. The PSP didn't have new models until 2007. If anything Sony responded to Nintendo, not the other way around.

Again, you don't understand the Blue ocean Strategy and becuase of that, you can not understand Nintendo's strategy with the DS. You keep thinking Nintendo has to compete with Sony becuase Sony is somewhat successful in the handheld business. Of course, what you are advocating is the exact opposite of what Nintendo should do. Nintendo lost every time they competed with Sony. The Wii and DS are successful becuase they avoid direct competition. Nintendo should never compete with Sony.

You underestimate Blue ocean Strategies a lot. You can use them forever. The only time a Blue Ocean Strategy will fail is if someone else opens a new blue ocean (which has not happened yet) or the company gives up on it and competes. Since no one has tried to open up a new blue ocean, Nintendo is best off to stick to their Blue Ocean.

But here is what you don't understand. The point of the Blue Ocean Strategy is to expand the market to users outside of the industry. Example: When Henry Ford made the Model T, he wasn't competing with cars at the time, he was competing with horse and carriages. Cars at the time were luxury vehicles and were used for Sunday drives rather then to get around. The Model T was meant for every man. It was cheap to afford, it was easy to learn how to drive, and it was cheap to repair. This is how America got on the road. Sowthwest Airlines was not competing with traditional airlines. But they were competing with alternative. Flying uis faster, but less economical and less flexable then driving. So Southwest focused on making flights cheaper and with less hassle (things such as transfers and what not). These are blue oceans as they do not follow the industry norm. A DS that would compete would have high end graphics, no touch screen and can play movies and music. The DS has N64 graphics, has a unique touch screen and can not play movies (it can play music with the DSi, but that is a different story).

The reason Nintendo never has to compte is becuase they made a new market. Sony is not competing over the same market space as Nintendo is, so they have no threat. The only threat they do have is people not using their products. They have to keep growing the market and nmake more users. This is where the big money is at.