To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

[alpha_dk]

Year 1 sales of PS2 (from vgchartz' data):
7,144,877

Year 2 sales of PS2:
16,979,964 (237.6% of year 1)

Year 3:
20,890,044 (292.4% of year 1)

Year 4:
19,002,686 (266.0% of year 1)

Granted, this data is misleading because IIRC year 1 of PS2 was japan only? If I had more time I would go through and try to account for different console releast dates. However, the point remains that console sales go *up* after the first year, not stay level. However, Wii doubling in sales for the next few years is not at all unlikely; considering it is more constrained by supply than demand at this point, and console sales trend upwards after the first year, not downwards. I think double year 1's sales is going to end up being pretty conservative, and that would put it at just under 100M by the end of year 3 (not the end of 2010).

So, while my rough estimation would mean Avinash would miss his prediction, keep in mind the following:
1) I am probably underestimating Wii's sales.
2) There *will* be more production than I am accounting for, and Nintendo is being proactive in finding new markets. Once the supply/demand curve stabilizes, like it seemed *almost* to the point of pre galaxy/holiday (i know, it was available in places. But places != everywhere. I am talking true stabilization, where if you want one you can get one without too much work, any day of the week). Anyways, once the stabilization occurs we will have more of an idea how it will sell... until, of course, colors/price drop/etc.

I think there are more causes for increased sales of Wii than you want to account for.

Personally, I would be *very* surprised if Avinash's prediction comes true. However, considering I fully expect it to be at 110M by when his prediction ends.... I won't begrudge him being right. His prediction is well within the reasonable side of unlikely.